Your Weekly Fundamental View (Apr 3-7)

Duben 03, 2017 10:00

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Need to know

The main focus of the trading week is on both the release of the FOMC meeting minutes and the US unemployment rate and Non-Farm Payroll figures. The three news events will provide information about the US economy, US interest rate development and the overall direction of the US Dollar. Also keep in mind that the Presidents from the US, Trump, and China, Xi Jinping are meeting each other on Thursday and Friday.

Coming up

Euro zone unemployment rate is announced on Monday, 3 April.

The Euro zone releases its new unemployment figure, which indicates how many people are actively seeking employment during the previous month. It provides key information regarding the labor market and the overall economic health.

Why should you care? The labor market is correlated with consumer spending which is one of the main motors of the economy. The previous figure is 9.6% and the current forecast is 9.5%.(*)

US PMI is released on Monday, 3 April.

The PMI (Purchasing Manufacturing Index) is a survey that measures the business conditions of purchasing managers in various areas such as employment, new orders, inventories and more.

Why should you care? For the US, the previous figure was 57.7 and the forecast is 57.(*) Anything above 50.0 indicates industry expansion.

Australia communicates interest rate decision and statement on Tuesday, 4 April.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) releases its decision on the direction of the Australian interest rate policy. The RBA will also add a policy statement which reviews and discusses its forecasts and the economic outlook.

Why should you care? The previous figure for the Australian interest rate is 1.5%, and the current forecast is 1.5%.(*)

US ADP figures are announced on Wednesday, 5 April.

The ADP (Automatic Data Processing) figures are based on the company's payroll services to other US corporations. Their data is important because ADP provides payroll services to around 400,000 customers and they can estimate employment growth.

Why should you care? Employment growth is a leading indicator of consumer spending. The previous figure is 298k and the expected figure is 200k.(*)

FOMC meeting minutes from US are communicated on Wednesday, 5 April.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) provides an account of the most recent policy meeting. It provides details into the economic and financial factors that impacted the FOMC board members who make monetary policy decisions.

Why should you care? The data gives an idea about the views of the board members. It will show whether board members were leaning towards more conservative monetary policy (hawkish, higher interest rates) or more aggressive monetary policy (dovish, lower interest rates).

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts announced on Thursday, 6 April.

Similar to the US, the European Central Bank (ECB) also offers its record of the Governing Board's most recent meeting. The meeting minutes are released 8 times per year exactly 4 weeks after the interest rate decision is announced.

Why should you care? The meeting minutes share the member's in depth views of the economic conditions that lead to the interest rate and monetary policy decisions.

Canadian unemployment rate is shown on Friday, 7 April.

The Canadian unemployment rate will provide information about the number of unemployed who are actively seeking employment in the previous month in relationship to the total work force.

Why should you care? The forecasted figure for the US is 6.6%, whereas the previous figure is 6.7%.(*)

US unemployment rate and Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) is expected on Friday, 7 April.

The US also releases its unemployment rate just like Canada but it also adds the NFP figure. The unemployment rate provides the number of unemployed who are actively seeking employment in the previous month in relationship to the total work force. The NFP number shows the change in the number of employed people during the previous month but excludes the farming industry.

Why should you care? The forecasted figure for the US unemployment rate is 4.7%, whereas the previous figure is 4.7%.(*) The forecasted figure for the US NFP rate is 176K, whereas the previous figure is 235K.(*)

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Source: development US unemployment rate.

(*) Admiral Markets Calendar